Wednesday, December 01, 2004

Wrong on Wilson

My first prediction kind of sucked. I thought Bowden would sign Wilson, but it looks like the Reds have given him a two-year deal.


At 2:03 PM, Blogger JammingEcono said...

I wouldn't lose too much sleep over Wilson. The Reds overpaid him by at least $2 million per year. They will reap the results when Wilson goes down with yet another shoulder, elbow, or back problem in June. Not to mention that he's just not that great of a pitcher, despite his improving ERA/WHIP over the past 3 seasons. At best, he's gone from being a horrible RHP to a below-average RHP.

I had posted elsewhere that the most Bowden should offer Wilson was the 2yrs/$4M he made in Cincy in 2003-04 and hope for 175 IP. Glad to see Trader Jim held off on this one. Now if he can just sign Odalis Perez (4yrs/$26M anyone?)...

At 2:38 PM, Blogger Washington Baseball said...

I was happy to see Wilson go elsewhere because I'm sure Bowden would overpay for him. I like Perez quite a bit, but the 4/$26 million deal seems a little steep to me. His post-season meltdown, questionable health, LA helped stats, and possibly dangerous career path (see my Will Carroll link) make him a risk at that money. I'd prefer a 2 or 3 year deal at $5 million per.

At 3:00 PM, Blogger JammingEcono said...

I'm going to disagree with you regarding Perez's workload. Fortunately, Hardball Times discussed this very topic today much better than I ever could. Here's the link:

That said, I'll admit that the 222 IP he worked in 2002 was probably excessive, especially for a 25 y.o. (at the time). Thankfully, his workload was reduced to a more sane 185 in 2003 and 196 in 2004. (Having an ace bullpen behind you kind of helps that way).

When I read Carroll's "Under the Knife" column before he went to BP, he often discussed the age 27 barrier. The gist of it was that pitchers who were going to have major injuries usually did so by the time they were 27. Case in point, Perez's '99 Tommy John surgery, which he appears to be fully recovered from. Considering Perez's age and the fact that he has started 3 relatively injury-free years with the Dodgers (and who knows how many before that in Latin America), I think his injury potential is manageable. Carroll may consider him a "red" injury risk thanks to his rotator cuff inflammation in June-July, but I'd be willing to roll the dice on this guy. In poker, we'd say that the pot odds are too good to fold.


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